The BBQ Parlay
Seven ranked teams lost to unranked foes this weekend, which benefited gamblers who took a chance.
A Wisconsin, a Texas A&M and a TCU alumn walk into a bar…
What may sound like the start of a bad, corny or off-color joke turns into an interesting gambling story.
On Saturday morning, standing in line at Truth Barbeque in Houston, Texas, I overheard three guys talking about the college football slate and their bets for the day.
I inquired further, and the group had placed a three-legged parlay bet on their alma maters: Wisconsin to cover the spread over Rutgers; Texas A&M to beat Auburn and TCU to cover verses Baylor.
Engaging in conversation, I said I liked all those picks, but thought—as I disclaimed my own bias— that Baylor could pull away in the second half. We then had an energetic, spirited and perhaps somewhat frenzied discussion about all things college football.
We talked about Gary and iconic stadium venues and Cincinnati and if anybody could stop the red machines of Ohio State, Oklahoma and Alabama. Then we ordered our BBQ, ate, said our goodbyes and left to watch the sport that connected us so quickly.
The upsets, close calls and unique environments that were on display over the next 12 hours were exhibit A on why we all love college football so much.
All I can say is that 1) I hope those three won a lot of money off of their parlay and 2) I wish Baylor could have made a game-winning field goal instead of throwing a pick that still would have allowed TCU to still cover the spread but not win outright.
In seven years of the CFP, 11 Top 10 teams have been upset in the weekend following the first release of the Playoff rankings. This past Saturday was no different.
In total, eight ranked teams lost this weekend. Five lost on the road, three more struggled on the road, and seven ranked teams lost to unranked foes. Proving once more that winning in college football is downright hard, and you should earn respect for doing so.
Or the Committee could continue to ignore the likes of Houston and UTSA and rank seven SEC teams again. We will see.
The things is, if you want a seat in the CFP as a Group of 5 school or a smaller Power 5 school you need to prove it on the field. You cannot keep dropping nonsensical games to very poor teams. It was so predictable, yet shocking all the same when everyone collapsed.
Let’s take a look at the upset filled weekend:
Wake Forest
Props to the Demon Deacons and the Tar Heels for scheduling each other as a non-conference game since they rarely played the rivalry with an Atlantic-Coastal cross over game.
Playing at Army and UNC for half your non-conference schedule is no easy task and all Wake Forest did was put up 125 points. That could have been an extra argument for a perfect Wake to get into the Playoff if anyone was watching.
But alas they also allowed an average of 57 points in those two games, and blew an 18-point second half lead in Chapel Hill for the Heels’ biggest upset win since a 31-28 win over No. 4 Miami in 2004.
The good news is that this does not put a blemish on Wake’s ACC record; the bad news is that they still have to host No. 19 N.C. State and play at Clemson and Boston College. Things could spiral real fast for the Deacs, which is a shame because they provided more representation of the ‘little guy’ in college football.
Cincinnati
The true little guy of college football. All the talk was about being disrespected by being ranked sixth, when that was not truly the core issue. And with a chance to really make a statement, they had the pleasure of hosting a Jackal and Hyde Tulsa team that nearly pulled off the upset.
In the wild fashion of CFB, Tulsa was at the goal line, down eight, with an opportunity to tie the game. They turned the ball over on downs at the two-yard line with just over a minute to play.
On the very next play, Desmond Ridder fumbled for the Bearcats and gave Tulsa renewed life at the three-yard line. In maddening Tulsa fashion, the Golden Hurricane could not punch it and instead fumbled on fourth and goal into the end zone.
Tulsa did play Oklahoma State and Ohio State close earlier this season and beat Memphis who beat Mississippi State, but Cincinnati—however wrong it may be—will not get these benefit of the doubt comparisons and simply needs to look better.
Baylor
TCU had no coach, no quarterback and no five-star running back and quickly found themselves in a 7-0 hole. Baylor’s defense had never given up 30 points this season, and coach Dave Aranda’s team seemed disciplined and focused to block out the excess noise.
In what had to be the worst and choppiest game of the day where 19 penalties were accepted for 176 total yards, three turnovers and TCU attempted five field goals, the powerful Bears could not capitalize.
Despite redshirt freshman Chandler Morris, starting his first ever game for interim head coach Jerry Kill, accounting for 531 total yards and three TDs, Baylor had an opportunity to win the game after the Horned Frogs’ final field goal hit the left upright with just under two minutes to go.
The Bears got to the outskirts of field goal range before Gerry Bohanon threw a game-ending interception to Shadrach Banks where he starred down his tight end the entire way. (So similar to the 2019 Oklahoma ending).
TCU has now beaten Baylor six of the last seven years, and five of those games have been decided by one possession. Maybe it’s karma for all the 61-58 jokes.
Michigan State
Boiler Up!
Purdue used four second half field goals to out pace the Spartans in West Lafayette after the game was tied at 21 early in the third quarter. The Boilermakers have now beaten No. 2 Iowa and No. 3 Michigan State and up next they have… the No. 5 Buckeyes.
Currently in a four way tie for the Big Ten West, Purdue fans may be chomping at the bit to turn this season into something special down the stretch.
Minnesota
Crazy to think that the Golden Gophers lost at home 14-6 to Illinois in what was an offensive dumpster fire.
Brett Belima’s Illini have now beaten Nebraska, Penn State and Minnesota, but have also lost to Rutgers and UTSA.
For the love of God, please somebody rank the Road Runners!
Mississippi State
Coach Mike Leach announced he will hold open campus tryouts for kickers after two different kickers missed three total field goals—including a potential game-tying attempt at the end of regulation in the 31-28 loss to Arkansas.
The Bulldogs should have never been ranked No. 17. But will the Committee just simply switch them with the Razorbacks?
Kentucky
Another SEC failure as the Wildcats dropped a home game to the Volunteers. And quiet honestly, the SEC East is a mess. This of course leads one to wonder:
Texas A&M
Auburn was tied with the Aggies three all at the half. Texas A&M added two more field goals for a 9-3 advantage before scoring the only touchdown of the game on a 24-yard fumble return by Micheal Clemons—the only TD of the game.
The Aggies will need to beat Ole Miss at the Grove Saturday and then in Baton Rouge after Thanksgiving AND need Alabama to lose in order to win the SEC West and qualify for the SEC title game.
If that were to happen, and Texas A&M were to defeat Georgia then there is a very really possibility that they become the first ever two loss team in the CFP.
Alabama and Other Close Calls
The Crimson Tide nearly open the door for someone else to represent the West by nearly losing to LSU in Tuscaloosa. They won 20-14 in large part thanks to their defense as they stopped the Tigers inside the 10 with seven minutes to play, and then again after Bryce young fumble at ‘Bama’s own 42.
Surely there have been big upsets in recent memory, monumental even. But nothing would have compared to the sudden and unexpected upset if a reeling LSU program soaked in scandal and led by a lame duck head coach came out of nowhere to upset No. 2 Alabama on the road.
Maybe the Committee should reevaluate that No. 2 ranking.
Ohio State struggled at Nebraska, Iowa looked bad at an even worse Northwestern team, and Oregon survived the Seattle win to beat Washington.
This is college football. It is hard to win, and even harder to win on the road.
You want to worry about the Playoff rankings when you should be worrying about the game on the field. That is why the CFP has been dominated by the likes of the Buckeyes, Tide and Sooners for the past seven years.
There is still the opportunity for Playoff variety this season, but the window gets a bit smaller each passing weekend as the upsets—what we love CFB for—continue to pile up.